Putin's Indo-Pacific play rattles existing regional alliances
Recent military exercises with ASEAN a Russian foreign policy milestone
Danil Bochkov is a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow.
What was believed to be a precursor for de-escalation, the video summit between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden has, in fact, left more uncertainties about deteriorating relations between Moscow and the West.
Several days after the talks, President Biden warned Russia of more severe sanctions should it act recklessly on Ukraine -- a caveat that actually signifies less room for further dialogue.
Facing mounting pressure from the West, Russia has instead turned toward reinforcing its position in the East. More precisely, Moscow is eyeing a strengthening of ties with its Indo-Pacific partners, mostly China. But there are also signs of Moscow's more active embrace of India and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Moscow and Beijing have both been identified as national security threats by the U.S. and a combined challenge for NATO.
In response, Russia and China starkly upgraded their military cooperation this year with a string of joint exercises and patrols taking place on land, in the air and at sea, which culminated with the signing of a road map for closer military ties until 2025.
Moscow's long-term diplomatic enthusiasm for its other foreign policy priority, India, was reemphasized with the recent summit in New Delhi between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi.
That rendezvous was only the second time that Putin has left Russia since the onset of the COVID pandemic and while the timing may be coincidental. The Russian president's India trip came before his video summit with Biden.
In Delhi, Putin hailed India as "a time-tested friend," adding that military cooperation with India was "like with no other country."
The main issues discussed between the two leaders related to cooperation surrounding security and energy, with Russia set to prioritize both areas as the cornerstones of its regional penetration, as has been shown by other recent diplomatic forays into Asia.
The most significant outcome of the Putin-Modi summit was the highly touted multimillion contract for the joint production of AK-203 assault rifles. This follows an earlier agreement to initialize S-400 surface-to-air missile systems worth $5 billion signed in 2018, despite strong opposition from Washington.
Not only is Moscow is willing to expand the number of its armaments made in India -- the production of Russian Kamov 226T helicopters is due to start soon -- but the local manufacture of its Sputnik V COVID vaccine production is already in progress.
New Delhi's eagerness to purchase Russian arms, including the possibility of buying brand-new S-500 missile systems in the future, notwithstanding the displeasure of its major defense partners within the QUAD, the four-nation security dialogue involving the U.S., Japan and Australia, speaks volumes as to the deepening strategic interaction between Russia and India.
The warm display of conviviality between Putin and Modi proves that India is more interested in broadening its multilateral foreign policy vision rather than siding with particular groups. This makes India the weak link in any anti-Russia-China alliances.
India's diversified diplomacy is further exemplified by its absence from the recent U.S-Japan-Australia trilateral initiative to fund an undersea cable project in the Indo-Pacific to offset China's growing influence.
Another bedrock of Moscow's Indo-Pacific flank is ASEAN.
Earlier this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov highlighted that "Russia is committed to strengthening" ASEAN centrality. This was further reinforced during the 4th ASEAN-Russia Summit on Oct. 28, when President Putin himself specifically emphasized that the facilitation of contacts with ASEAN has "always been... one of the Russian foreign policy priorities."
Russia has been keen on deepening ties with ASEAN ever since Putin prioritized the advanced development of its Far Eastern corner as "Russia's top priority." Vladivostok, the eastern capital, now has strong air connections with Singapore and some other ASEAN states, which may facilitate greater investment and economic cooperation.
A majority of ASEAN's 10 member-states have been lobbying for a free trade agreement with Russia since 2019, after Russia and ASEAN effectively upgraded their dialogue to the strategic level in 2018 and launched a successful annual business dialogue in 2017.
The penny finally seems to have dropped in Washington that Moscow is earnestly seeking to boost its ties with Southeast Asia to counter other regional alliances. ASEAN has now become an important diplomatic battleground, with the U.S., China and Russia all vying for attention.
In November, Beijing wrapped up its anniversary summit with ASEAN, while three weeks later, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked on his first trip through the region in a bid to secure U.S. strategic interests and elevate ties with the ASEAN to "unprecedented" levels.
In fact, Russia and the U.S. have come to play in a power game over ASEAN, with Indonesia's President Joko Widodo hosting the head of the powerful Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, hot on the heels of his meeting with Blinken.
Moscow is also expanding its regional diplomatic profile by highlighting the importance of interstate cooperation on security matters. Russia's main instruments for that have routinely been through regular military engagements with China.
However, in a sign of its deeper penetration into the region's security agenda, Moscow and ASEAN conducted their first joint naval maneuvers earlier this month.
This development is a true milestone for Russia's military relations, not only with key regional actors but other countries around the world since Russia has never before participated in multilateral military drills with allied blocks outside its own Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and before 2014, with the NATO under the auspices of the NATO-Russia Council.